When did estimating become an exercise in producing results with the expectation that they would be pin-point accurate? There are very few services that I can think of in my personal life where I would expect an estimate to be any more than just that – an estimate, an approximate calculation. When I take my car in for repair or when a service man initially looks at my broken hot water heater, I get an estimate and my understanding is that this figure is in the ballpark of what I should expect to pay; with the exception of any unforeseen circumstances. I don’t write them a check then and there because I know the actual amount is going vary from the estimated amount. Why should our expectations be any different when estimating a software deliverable?

How many times have we heard stories and/or personally experienced a scenario whereby IT takes all the heat for a project that was late and over budget. Typically the measure for a project being late or over budget is based on comparison of actuals to plans (estimated of course). So if the estimate is not ‘accurate’ then there is a penalty to pay; most often by IT. I realize that there are many extenuating circumstances in such a scenario; however, if we assume that the IT department took the task of estimating seriously and applied the skill and rigor necessary to produce their best estimate then where do we lay the blame? Is it on the user for changing scope mid-way through? Possibly, but not likely since we can always do another estimate. Is it some unforeseen circumstance either business related or technology related? It’s a possibility. Regardless of the situation, my experience tells me that the heart of the matter is that our customers (users) do not have their expectations properly aligned with what an estimate actually represents. Therefore, I believe it is the responsibility of  IT senior management to ensure that the business partners understand the estimating process and understand what an estimate represents. An estimate is to provide an approximation based upon best information available at that time.

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